Discontinuation Impact Analyzer

Example output

Discontinuation impact analysis — Fernwood Bakery, Seeded Rye and Rosemary Focaccia, Coastal Basket:

Seeded Rye

Cannibalization read: Rye's closest surviving SKU is your Multigrain loaf, which shares the "hearty/dense" texture profile. Expect a moderate share of Rye's volume to transfer there. The remainder likely does not transfer within your range — rye is a distinct enough flavor profile that some buyers may simply stop buying Fernwood in this occasion rather than switch loaves. Assumption to validate against any SKU-switching data Coastal Basket can share.

Halo-loss assessment: low. Rye does not appear to anchor an end-cap or drive traffic beyond its own sales; nothing in the data provided suggests it pulls shoppers into the rest of your bread set.

Shopper-defection risk: moderate-to-low. Bottom-quartile velocity across 8 SKUs suggests a small buyer base, but "small and vocal on social" does not necessarily mean commercially significant — vocal does not equal volume. Recommend checking whether the social following correlates with actual repeat purchase data before weighting this risk higher.

Call: GO for delist, with a standard transition plan pointing displaced demand toward Multigrain.

Rosemary Focaccia

Cannibalization read: weaker internal transfer than Rye — focaccia's flat, herb-forward profile doesn't map cleanly onto any other SKU in your 8-item range. This is a higher risk of losing the volume outright rather than retaining it within your portfolio.

Halo-loss assessment: investigate further. Focaccia formats often anchor an "artisan/craft" positioning within a bread set even at modest volume — before cutting it, check whether Rosemary Focaccia is disproportionately represented in any bakery-department secondary placement, seasonal display, or entertaining-occasion merchandising Coastal Basket runs. If it is, cutting it may cost more than its own sales line suggests. This is the single most important thing to verify before deciding.

Shopper-defection risk: moderate. Focaccia buyers skew toward an entertaining/sharing occasion that is somewhat distinct from your everyday bread buyers — losing them may not show up as "bread category" defection but could reduce basket size on the occasions when they do shop Fernwood.

Call: INVESTIGATE FURTHER before deciding. Do not delist in the same cycle as Rye without first checking the secondary-placement and occasion questions above.

Evidence still needed
- SKU-switching or panel data showing where Rye and Focaccia buyers' spend goes when the item is unavailable, if any test markets or out-of-stock periods exist.
- Confirmation of whether Focaccia appears in any seasonal, entertaining, or secondary display program at Coastal Basket.
- A basic cross-check of the "vocal social following" against actual repeat-purchase records, so social visibility isn't mistaken for commercial importance in either direction.

One-page risk summary

Fernwood Bakery is evaluating two bottom-quartile SKUs for delist: Seeded Rye and Rosemary Focaccia. Rye shows a clear internal transfer path to Multigrain and low halo risk — it is a reasonably safe cut once a transition plan is in place. Focaccia carries more uncertainty: its volume is less likely to transfer within the range, and it may be quietly supporting seasonal or entertaining-occasion merchandising that isn't visible in velocity data alone. Recommend proceeding with Rye on the standard delist track while holding Focaccia for one more review cycle, pending the secondary-placement check above.

Want me to turn the Rye decision into a full delist transition plan once you're ready to execute it?