Sales Forecast Narrative for S&OP

Example output

S&OP forecast narrative — Halden Creamery oat-based ice cream, Q3

Executive summary:
Q3 forecast is up 22% versus our last submission, concentrated almost entirely in one SKU — Salted Caramel Pint — following strong sell-through from a summer promotion at [insert retailer name]. The other two flavors are forecasted roughly flat. Before this number gets finalized, we need supply planning to confirm our co-packer can support the Salted Caramel volume; the growth is real, but capacity is the open question, not demand.

What's driving the number:
Salted Caramel Pint drove a promo-supported sell-through lift at [insert retailer] through July and August that materially outperformed our original forecast assumption. [Insert actual sell-through or scan-data lift percentage if available.] The other two flavors, Vanilla Bean and Coffee Toffee, are tracking close to our prior forecast with no material driver to call out this cycle.

Key assumptions this forecast depends on:
1. The Salted Caramel lift observed during the promo period continues at a similar rate once the promotion ends in September — this is the single biggest assumption in the number, and it is not yet confirmed. Treat the post-promo run-rate as an assumption to validate against the first few weeks of September scan data.
2. No incremental distribution gains or losses at any other retailer during Q3 beyond what's already confirmed.
3. No new competitive launch in the oat-based ice cream set during the quarter that would pressure our share. Flag if you're aware of one.

Confidence by SKU:
- Salted Caramel Pint: moderate confidence on direction (up), low confidence on magnitude — the post-promo run-rate is the open variable.
- Vanilla Bean: high confidence — stable, well-established demand pattern.
- Coffee Toffee: high confidence — stable, tracking close to prior forecast.

Supply and inventory risks operations should plan around:
Our co-packer has a stated capacity ceiling [insert actual units/week or cases/month ceiling], and if all three flavors grow at the forecasted rate simultaneously, combined volume may approach or exceed that ceiling in peak weeks. This is the single most important flag for this S&OP cycle: the demand forecast may be real, but production capacity — not shopper demand — could become the actual constraint on Q3 sales.

Our ask:
1. Supply planning: confirm co-packer capacity against the combined SKU forecast before we finalize Q3 numbers, and flag which weeks are highest-risk for a ceiling breach.
2. Manufacturing: if a ceiling breach is likely, tell us now whether prioritizing Salted Caramel production over the other two flavors is feasible, since that SKU is carrying the growth.
3. Finance: model the downside case where Salted Caramel's post-promo demand reverts closer to our original, lower forecast, so we have a range, not a single point estimate, going into the meeting.

Bottom line for the room:
This is a good problem — real, promo-driven demand growth on one SKU — but it needs a capacity answer before we commit a 22%-higher number company-wide. Recommend the S&OP meeting treat Q3 as a range (base case: prior forecast +10-15%; upside case: +22% if capacity and post-promo demand both hold) rather than a single confirmed number, until supply planning responds.

Want this trimmed into 90 seconds of speaking notes for the S&OP meeting itself?